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Post Info TOPIC: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics


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Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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Hi all,


Reaching 1000  caches (a few times) raised a number of questions that no one seemed to want to tackle, like how many were placed since caching started here, what percentage have been archived, what's the ratio of cache types over time, are we being overrun with micros, etc, etc?


So I PQ'd grnbrg's archived cache list (thanks) and then tried to add all the active caches in Manitoba into GSAK. Exported it into excel via csv and ran a bunch of pivot table queries and generated the following tables which people may find interesting (I know I did).


First archived caches. Naturally the older the cache the more likely it is to be archived but I was surprised that only 20% of caches placed since caching began in MB have been archived. The table below shows by year the cache was placed the percentage of active vs archived caches. Note that we are at 1290 total placed caches. I noticed that I seem a couple of caches light on the active count (1020 rather than 1022) so there may be a few errors but it should be pretty close.




-- Edited by Dragonfreys at 00:58, 2006-12-02

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Cache types
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Next was the type of caches placed from the beginning



This wasn't too surprising although I didn't realise there had been that many events already. Then it was split out by year.



This is a very encouraging trend for caching in Manitoba. Looks like a log growth curve.




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Cache Density
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By this point I was starting to wonder about cache density so I popped the data into a GIS and ran a kernel density grid analysis on 100 m resolution for Manitoba and 50 m in Winnipeg. Winnipeg's density was so much higher than every where else I had to show the Manitoba density as a standard deviation to have any other hotspots show up (a little over 400 of the active caches in MB are within the perimeter by the way). It gives you a good idea where the hot spots of caching are in the province.



Note that the Winnipeg area analysis uses the perimeter (roughly) as a cutoff but much of the high density caching unfiltered was carried to the northeast all the way to Bird's Hill PP.



Its pretty easy to see where there is room for more caches and where the density is already pretty high. The highest density spot is the UofM with over 10 caches/sq km.



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Caches by Month
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Does cache placing slow down in the winter - you betcha. Do you think the May blitz had an impact? Check this out.




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Cache Size
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One of the big issues of late is the perceived proliferation of micros. Are we really being overrun with the little buggers? Perhaps not, looks like small is the cache size of choice, followed by regular and micros coming in at third.




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RE: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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HOLY COW!!!!


Amazing!  You've put a whole lot of work into this Sean!  I'm extremely impressed.  I'm a fan of statistics.


I would be interested in having this permanently available on our web site.  Is this something you'd be willing to share there?


You're my hero!



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Another stat that was queried because it was there, was what is the probability of a given cache type containing a travel bug? Now you know.




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Other stats
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I also looked at whether or not difficulty and terrain ratings were changing over the years and it seems a bit inconclusive on a cursory view. You can get the whole spreadsheet with all the various worksheets from here. Feel free to take it and massage out other stats that appear to support any number of viewpoints.


Now I should sleep Gnite all.



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RE: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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Now I personaly could think of several other things to do at 2 am on a Saturaday morning, 1 being night caching, 2 being under the sheetes dreaming about caching, but none the less very impressive.


I proudly point out the map where the two rivers meet in the north...quite impressive red coloring there don't ya think? HUmmmmmmmm!


 


Never ceases to amaze me the tallents we find caching.



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Quite the interesting.  I may only be a newbie cacher still, but it's still quite informative.  I KNEW we weren't being overrun with micros.  As said elsewhere... like 90% of the micros are either Mayors or Conquistas (which tend to still indeed be fun for the most part).


Yeah, safe assumtion caches placed in winter will be less.  Well... at least I'll be adding at least one in December (unless something else goes horribly wrong) :P.  Possibly two, but we'll see.


 


But as someone else mentioned, these would be interesting to see on the main mbga page.



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There is one problem though, many of the "micros" are listed as small caches.

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Very impressive work you did Dragonfreys. You mentioned pivot tables and I shuddered. Glad you knew what you were doing. The stats revealed some interesting information.

Thanks for the hard work.

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Very interesting stats. Thanks for spending all the time it must have taken to put them all together. .

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ertyu wrote:


There is one problem though, many of the "micros" are listed as small caches.



This is true (if one goes by my definitions... that being that an altoids container is a micro).  I asked on the geocaching.com board about that once, and the general consensus is that an altoids tin (regular size) was a small.


Bah... the first cache I'm putting out will be a 'small', but I could easily fit about 6-8 altoids tins INSIDE of it :P  I say we lobby that Altoids tins be called micros



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dani_carriere wrote:



I would be interested in having this permanently available on our web site.  Is this something you'd be willing to share there?





Actually they are already on the MBGA website in an album here. I do this type of work for a living so it really didn't take long. Took me longer to try to get the images posted properly while working around the idosyncrocies of IE7.


 



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Micros
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ertyu wrote:


There is one problem though, many of the "micros" are listed as small caches.


You are welcome to take the database and correct it for your definition of a micro. I didn't do a regional analysis but I would hazard a guess that the vast majority of micros are within the perimeter, and I do believe you have that covered pretty well.  


-- Edited by Dragonfreys at 21:43, 2006-12-02

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RE: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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Fascinating stats Dragonfreys! Thanks for sharing them with the rest of us .I found the density map of Winnipeg particularly interesting. I wonder now what a map of the home locations of cachers would reveal?? Where is the greater populace of cachers located and is there a direct correlation of cache placement density to cachers residences? That would be an obvious conclusion but is it so? Hmmmmm...

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sam and lily wrote:


Fascinating stats Dragonfreys! Thanks for sharing them with the rest of us .I found the density map of Winnipeg particularly interesting. I wonder now what a map of the home locations of cachers would reveal?? Where is the greater populace of cachers located and is there a direct correlation of cache placement density to cachers residences? That would be an obvious conclusion but is it so? Hmmmmm...


I did think about doing some sort of cacher statistics but there are a couple of problems with the data from the pocket query. First cachers can and often do modify the name of who placed the cache so it can be challenging to link caches to unique cachers. This could be overcome with some filters and merging of aliases but then the other issue is privacy. There are a number of geostatisical tools designed to determine where someone lives by their activities (crime analysis in GIS has come a long ways in the past few years) and in most cases it would be even easier with geocaching because of the requirement of cache maintenance. So I left individual cache density analysis alone, but I suppose another approach would be to look at regional densities and then determine the number of cachers by region and see if they correlate. MBGA has a classification for members in Winnipeg, rest of Manitoba, and outside of Manitoba, so we can see if those ratios mesh.

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The density correlates strongly with attractive cache land. Large tracks of public land that has many hiding spots, mostly parks.

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Pocket queries do contain the "placed by" name but it also contains the unique "owner id" and unique name.


      <groundspeak:placed_by>Lil-Digger</groundspeak:placed_by>
      <groundspeak:owner id="234129">polarbeardiggers</groundspeak:owner>


 



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Hmmm, must have missed that. Will have to check it out. It would be interesting to see how many unique hiders are in given areas.

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RE: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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ertyu wrote:


The density correlates strongly with attractive cache land. Large tracks of public land that has many hiding spots, mostly parks.


Ah yes, I did think of running a park vs cache density analysis but didn't get around to it. I think it could be quite interesting and helpful for future hiders.

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Hider Stats
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Okay, thanks to Peter's tip here's the breakdown of hider stats. First a histogram of the cache placement by unique hiders. Note that you only have to place about 5 caches before you've placed more than 80% of other hiders in Manitoba.



Next is cache type by unique hider. The regional stuff may have to wait for another lunch hour. Note that these stats are only for caches placed in Manitoba and labeled as such (actually 6 caches are outside of MB but labeled as MB so there are included). Also one of the traditionals was actually a moving cache that ended up in Montana.



 



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Active Cache Hider Stats
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Anticipating the next question might be "What's the stats with active caches?" this was generated. Note the abreviated cache types T-Traditional, M-multi, U-Unknown/Puzzle, V-Virtual, L-Letterbox, E-Event, C-CITO.




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Regional Stats
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Okay, took some lunch time to pop out a few more stats. Used the Regional Health Authority areas, for lack of anything better and did a quick spatial join of caches to regions. Here's the type of caches by region.



Here's a table showing the size breakdown by region. As expected Winnipeg is the micro capital of the province with 70% of caches being either a micro or small and the highest micro ratio in the province at 30%.



Cache hider ratios by region. Interesting that 1Queen&4Jokers and polarbeardiggers are the only two teams to have hidden caches in six different regions. I was going to do a further breakdown of Winnipeg by neighbourhoods but didn't get around to it.




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Hot Spots
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I love stats - especially with visualizations. DragonFreys are my heroes!

My favorite so far has to be the cache density, kernel density grid analysis. It shows all the sweet spots. I think we can give some of these spots names.

There’s the strong caching communities of Flin Flon and Cranberry Portage, the nmrider spot in Swan River, the DragonFreys spot at Onanole, the collaborative effort to make Brandon a spot on the GeoCaching map, the GEO30G/S class’ excursions to the Brandon Hills spot and lap and abeja2’s busy hiding to make Winkler\Morden and Carman GeoCaching holiday destinations. There’s also the relatively new The Redneck spot in Elm Creek, the kruzrrr zone around Portage la Prairie, the ginny212 party spot over Winnipeg Beach and junglehair & The Old Bat leaving there mark at camp Morton. And of course where it all started, the 1Q4J (along with their extended caching family, Explorer and Ramblin Rose and FreeS), hot spots in Morris and Steinbach.

The Provincial Government could take a lesson from Manitoba GeoCachers in promoting tourism in Manitoba’s vacation hotspot, The Whiteshell. Forget those expensive tour guides – just point travelers to GeoCaching.com.

And of course the really big hot spot created by a plethora of hiders that have placed a cache by every park, plaque, statue, historical monument, trail, or otherwise interesting location in Winnipeg, now a GeoCaching vacation destination.

My favourite is the Slippery spot over The Pas though :)



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TurdleEggs wrote:



My favorite so far has to be the cache density, kernel density grid analysis. It shows all the sweet spots. I think we can give some of these spots names.

My favourite is the Slippery spot over The Pas though :)




There is some nice blush developing around the party hotspot of St. Geneviève.

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Caches in Protected Areas
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Well the provincial government recently updated their protected areas layer for Manitoba so out of curiousity I did some more spatial joins and came up with some more statistics for you stats lovers out there. Here's the map showing the types and general areas of protected public property in the province (there's a tongue twister).



Note that there are often provincial parks within provincial forests so caches may land in both, although technically the parks usually have higher levels of protection. Here's a table of protected areas and the number of caches by year placed in them. You can see which are favourite haunts of geocachers.



And here is the list of provincial forests that contain caches




-- Edited by Dragonfreys at 00:02, 2006-12-08

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RE: Manitoba Geocaching Placement Statistics
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I will try to send you a green spaces map for Winnipeg later today - With the very high density of caches in Winnipeg (of course compared to rural MB not NY) it would be interesting to see that distribution.  OK - Dradonfrys and I had an off line email about green spaces (parks/rec/just green).


I like the map of the protected areas - I see there is a cache at overflow (Blitzing "The Overflow") just north of the Lake Winnipegosis Salt Flats ecological reserve.  If you can get a map it might be useful to add that group of protected areas as well.


Thanks - Overall some cool maps.  Cache density at the RM level or nearest neighbour distances might give more rural cachers a better measure to use as the denominator for the Dani Ratio.



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Dragonfreys wrote:



TurdleEggs wrote:



My favorite so far has to be the cache density, kernel density grid analysis. It shows all the sweet spots. I think we can give some of these spots names.

My favourite is the Slippery spot over The Pas though :)




There is some nice blush developing around the party hotspot of St. Geneviève.




Now I read, re-read, and then was about to write how could the Turdle forget me when suddenly the print became clear. He didn't forget me, I just couldn't see the Forrest for the Trees.


Offers to Hot Wax any Turdle legs if he gets near my patch of Brush! And now I wonder whether the Dragon has my coin ready for me to pick up on Monday Morning when I go through? Grins...Y'll



-- Edited by slippery_1 at 13:57, 2006-12-08

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